I was only able to do one round of the modest experiment due to my wife undergoing emergency surgery. Its just as well as the first round was a modest fiasco with only one out of the four paying, so that means I lost $5.80 on this round. I’ll try again next week. I must admit there seems to be short-sighted scammers out there than there used to be. Back in the good old days getting in day one was a lock on making a profit as the ponzi operators wanted to set things up for a big take. Now it seems they want to go thought all the hassle for maybe one to two grand at most.
Oh well. On another note a few of the supposedly safer lower interest HYIPs went under taking me for a few. The rogues were HMD, Maya Fund, and Botanica.
Guess I should go back to the slot machines as the odds seem better….
Friday, May 25, 2007
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
A Modest Experiment
A strategy that has been floating around is Hit and Run the really high interest ponzis with small spends of say, between $1 and $10. Basically you look for HYIPS that just came out that day and pay between 110% and 200% for a day. The next day you cash out and move on to the next set of new HYIPs spawned that day. Assuming an average 120%, and that all of them payout you can double your money in a week.
The key to success of this strategy is get in early, don’t come back, and don’t make a spend large enough to tempt the Admin to run with your spend. You might push your spend up to $20, but I feel it would be safer to create multiple e-gold accounts to spend from and keep the spends at a max of $10.
The big danger is that the HYIP Admin doesn’t intend to pay out at all. One of those can wipe out your profit from 4 to 5 paying ones. There are some who think that they should either make a $1 test spend or wait a day to see if they pay. The danger there is that each day increases the risk of not getting paid dramatically. Assuming a 120% return with the Admin taking 20% rake for himself, then only 2 out of 3 deposits will get paid.
The above number is also the argument against respending into the same HYIP after getting paid. If you still insist on respending then pay close attention to if there are higher interest plans that pay after X amount of days. For example a HYIP pays 120% after 1 day and 175% after 3 days. Then stick to the one day play and make only a single respend as the odds are very high that the pyramid will collapse on day 3.
It should be noted that I set 200% as an upper limit even though there are daily programs that will pay 300-1500%. Given the financial reality of such a pyramid, the odds of getting paid are slim at best, and in most case they will just cut and run without making any payouts.
While this is a strategy that I haven’t made much use of, I have decided on a modest experiment. I have set aside $10 and will make $2 spends until I’ve grown the amount to $20, then up the spend to $5, and so forth. I will stick to a smile day one hit and run approach and limit the HYIPS to the 110-200% return range.
Today I found 4 to spend $2 in. one pays 11%, two pay 120%, and one pays 145%. I woun’t list them as by the time you read this they will likely be dead.
Stay tuned for the results….
The key to success of this strategy is get in early, don’t come back, and don’t make a spend large enough to tempt the Admin to run with your spend. You might push your spend up to $20, but I feel it would be safer to create multiple e-gold accounts to spend from and keep the spends at a max of $10.
The big danger is that the HYIP Admin doesn’t intend to pay out at all. One of those can wipe out your profit from 4 to 5 paying ones. There are some who think that they should either make a $1 test spend or wait a day to see if they pay. The danger there is that each day increases the risk of not getting paid dramatically. Assuming a 120% return with the Admin taking 20% rake for himself, then only 2 out of 3 deposits will get paid.
The above number is also the argument against respending into the same HYIP after getting paid. If you still insist on respending then pay close attention to if there are higher interest plans that pay after X amount of days. For example a HYIP pays 120% after 1 day and 175% after 3 days. Then stick to the one day play and make only a single respend as the odds are very high that the pyramid will collapse on day 3.
It should be noted that I set 200% as an upper limit even though there are daily programs that will pay 300-1500%. Given the financial reality of such a pyramid, the odds of getting paid are slim at best, and in most case they will just cut and run without making any payouts.
While this is a strategy that I haven’t made much use of, I have decided on a modest experiment. I have set aside $10 and will make $2 spends until I’ve grown the amount to $20, then up the spend to $5, and so forth. I will stick to a smile day one hit and run approach and limit the HYIPS to the 110-200% return range.
Today I found 4 to spend $2 in. one pays 11%, two pay 120%, and one pays 145%. I woun’t list them as by the time you read this they will likely be dead.
Stay tuned for the results….
Thursday, May 10, 2007
What? You're Still Here?
What? You're Still Here?
Well I guess that means you want to roll the dice on these. And you probably want to know what one I'm rolling the dice on too. Of course you have to understand just because I'm in one I am in no way recommending it. And just because I got paid today doesn't mean I'm going to get paid tomorrow, or that you are going to get paid at all.
I will of course write more on strategies. I will also write on the economics of running one of these things and criteria for deciding if one is fit to gamble on.
I will also write a setup guide for Newbies outlining what you need to do to start gambling on these.
And remember they are all ponzis or are investing in other ponzis...
Well I guess that means you want to roll the dice on these. And you probably want to know what one I'm rolling the dice on too. Of course you have to understand just because I'm in one I am in no way recommending it. And just because I got paid today doesn't mean I'm going to get paid tomorrow, or that you are going to get paid at all.
I will of course write more on strategies. I will also write on the economics of running one of these things and criteria for deciding if one is fit to gamble on.
I will also write a setup guide for Newbies outlining what you need to do to start gambling on these.
And remember they are all ponzis or are investing in other ponzis...
The Ponzi Flavours
The Ponzi Flavours
Ponzi's come in three basic flavours:
1) Rape and Run - With these the operator is a two-bit petty thief who has no intention of running a proper ponzi. What they do is promote the hell out of it then split with the loot on the start date. A Classic example was Proinvestgroup.
Technically they are not ponzis as the money from the later investors doesn't go to pay the earlier investors. They are very democratic in that everybody gets screwed.
So beware of programs which are going to close before starting payouts, or are heavilly promoting a start time and a matrix or payout structure that encourages people to jump in early. Another danger sign is promising 200-300% in a week or less.
Still you can get fooled and there is no such thing as a 'safe' new program.
2) Fly casting - With this the operator figures that by making a few payments they can entice bigger spends, thus making a bigger score. This is the most common ponzi. Anything that pays out 5% or more a day is one of these. The classing give-away is an interest rate that increases with the size of the spend.
As this is the most common type you'll encounter, you really need to develop a well-disciplined cash management strategy like the following:
a - Spend only enough so that the profit is equal to the minimum spend
b - Pull out your principal after its been earned and only spend the profit
At this point if it tanks you have your principal and have lived to fight another day. Hey, we've all seen worse.
c - If you receive a second payout or have had the respend returned, respend the minimum and pull the rest off the table.
At this point if it tanks you have a modest profit, congratulations!
d - If you received your respend back a third time, its looks like you may have a professional ponzi. So start rolling all the payout until you are getting double your spend per cycle profit.
e - From here in pull your half profit off the table until the danger signs appear. Then pull every thing out. There may still be some life, but its better to leave early than late, and there is always another deal tomorrow.
Some of you may say, why take out half, why not compound everything? Well, the only money that's real is the money you keep. So I aim to keep as much as I can. Some of that goes to fund another program so as to diversify and diversify you must as these things have the shelf life of egg salad in the summer sun.
A little bit here, a little bit there. It all adds up.
3) Is the professional ponzi. This is one that has been paying for over a month. Its either run by a real pro wanting to make a really big score, like PIP, or its a ponzi mutual fund run by reasonably honest operators.
In either case its a ponzi player's dream as you can make good money off of these.
You play them as I outlined in 2. If you get to 2 d, then you know its a pro job. Even if you know its been paying a couple of weeks still play it like a 2) as you don't know how much life there is left in it.
Remember Greed is your mortal enemy. Capital preservation is your priority, for as long as you still have gold your still in the game.
Ponzi's come in three basic flavours:
1) Rape and Run - With these the operator is a two-bit petty thief who has no intention of running a proper ponzi. What they do is promote the hell out of it then split with the loot on the start date. A Classic example was Proinvestgroup.
Technically they are not ponzis as the money from the later investors doesn't go to pay the earlier investors. They are very democratic in that everybody gets screwed.
So beware of programs which are going to close before starting payouts, or are heavilly promoting a start time and a matrix or payout structure that encourages people to jump in early. Another danger sign is promising 200-300% in a week or less.
Still you can get fooled and there is no such thing as a 'safe' new program.
2) Fly casting - With this the operator figures that by making a few payments they can entice bigger spends, thus making a bigger score. This is the most common ponzi. Anything that pays out 5% or more a day is one of these. The classing give-away is an interest rate that increases with the size of the spend.
As this is the most common type you'll encounter, you really need to develop a well-disciplined cash management strategy like the following:
a - Spend only enough so that the profit is equal to the minimum spend
b - Pull out your principal after its been earned and only spend the profit
At this point if it tanks you have your principal and have lived to fight another day. Hey, we've all seen worse.
c - If you receive a second payout or have had the respend returned, respend the minimum and pull the rest off the table.
At this point if it tanks you have a modest profit, congratulations!
d - If you received your respend back a third time, its looks like you may have a professional ponzi. So start rolling all the payout until you are getting double your spend per cycle profit.
e - From here in pull your half profit off the table until the danger signs appear. Then pull every thing out. There may still be some life, but its better to leave early than late, and there is always another deal tomorrow.
Some of you may say, why take out half, why not compound everything? Well, the only money that's real is the money you keep. So I aim to keep as much as I can. Some of that goes to fund another program so as to diversify and diversify you must as these things have the shelf life of egg salad in the summer sun.
A little bit here, a little bit there. It all adds up.
3) Is the professional ponzi. This is one that has been paying for over a month. Its either run by a real pro wanting to make a really big score, like PIP, or its a ponzi mutual fund run by reasonably honest operators.
In either case its a ponzi player's dream as you can make good money off of these.
You play them as I outlined in 2. If you get to 2 d, then you know its a pro job. Even if you know its been paying a couple of weeks still play it like a 2) as you don't know how much life there is left in it.
Remember Greed is your mortal enemy. Capital preservation is your priority, for as long as you still have gold your still in the game.
10 Ways How To Lose Money Playing HYIPS
10 Ways How To Lose Money Playing HYIPS
1) Believing the BS the Program Manager says about what they actually do and that they are in for the long term.
The truth is that they are all ponzis or invest in other ponzis. Let's face it, if I knew a real investment that doubled every week, why would I bother with all the hassles of running a program. If I really wanted to spread the wealth I'd just tell everybody what the real investment was.
The life expectancy ranges from a few days to a week on the double your money or better programs to a year or so on the 1% a day programs.
2) Waiting a month until the program has a track record.
Yup! And she'll shut down about 5 minutes after your spend.
3) Believing in the program. Or worse, turning it into a religion.
And they'll love you and leave you. Even if the Program Manager is somewhat 'honest' the pyramid will collapse or the Feds will pay a visit
4) Putting it all in one program.
Hell, I wouldn't even do that with blue chip stocks.
5) Betting money you can't afford to lose, or betting the farm.
People still do it! Some people actually put $50K or more in Omega Trust. What the hell were they thinking!!!
6) Pouring good money after bad.
Its amazing how people do that. They're being set up for one hell of a cleaning and reaming.
7) Putting money into a program who's payment cycle is increasing or percentage payout is decreasing.
Guys, the pyramid is crumbling and its time to bail.
8) Putting money into a program that is about to close. Or a part of the program is closing. Or they're offering a special deal, like a free unit for every 10.
Yup! Lets do one last rake in of the suckers.
9) Rolling over all the profits
Paper profits can burn to ashes pretty damn fast. It isn't real until you cash the check from the e-gold exchanger.
10) Letting greed get the better of you
As they say on Wall Street. Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered...
1) Believing the BS the Program Manager says about what they actually do and that they are in for the long term.
The truth is that they are all ponzis or invest in other ponzis. Let's face it, if I knew a real investment that doubled every week, why would I bother with all the hassles of running a program. If I really wanted to spread the wealth I'd just tell everybody what the real investment was.
The life expectancy ranges from a few days to a week on the double your money or better programs to a year or so on the 1% a day programs.
2) Waiting a month until the program has a track record.
Yup! And she'll shut down about 5 minutes after your spend.
3) Believing in the program. Or worse, turning it into a religion.
And they'll love you and leave you. Even if the Program Manager is somewhat 'honest' the pyramid will collapse or the Feds will pay a visit
4) Putting it all in one program.
Hell, I wouldn't even do that with blue chip stocks.
5) Betting money you can't afford to lose, or betting the farm.
People still do it! Some people actually put $50K or more in Omega Trust. What the hell were they thinking!!!
6) Pouring good money after bad.
Its amazing how people do that. They're being set up for one hell of a cleaning and reaming.
7) Putting money into a program who's payment cycle is increasing or percentage payout is decreasing.
Guys, the pyramid is crumbling and its time to bail.
8) Putting money into a program that is about to close. Or a part of the program is closing. Or they're offering a special deal, like a free unit for every 10.
Yup! Lets do one last rake in of the suckers.
9) Rolling over all the profits
Paper profits can burn to ashes pretty damn fast. It isn't real until you cash the check from the e-gold exchanger.
10) Letting greed get the better of you
As they say on Wall Street. Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered...
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Do You Have A Problem?
As far as I'm concerned, playing these HYIP's is pure gambling. And like gambling it can be addictive. And if you get addicted then...
YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!
YES YOU YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!
It can really f--ck up your life and the lives of those who depend on you.
The first step to dealing with it is to own that you have a HYIP addiction, the second is to get your ass to Gambler's Anonymous. They're in the phone book, and have a web site at
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org
They have some great info on how you can tell if you have a problem, so I will only elaborate on that a bit.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself:
1 - Do I HAVE to make that spend?
2 - Am I spending most of my free time on the Net researching programs?
3 - Do I try and pretend that its investing?
4 - Am I playing the maximum?
5 - Do my payouts spend right out again? In other words is my average e-gold balance a $1.35?
6 - Am I never pulling money out of my e-gold account?
7 - Am I always putting real money into my e-gold account?
8 - Am I so deluded that I actually think I can retire early doing this?
9 - Am I jeopardizing my real retirement in the process?
10 - Am I spending money I really can't afford?
11 - Am I hiding my activities from those I love?
12 - Is this causing financial and relationship problems for me? If you start referring friends and family you certainly are asking for relationship problems.
13 - Do I obsessively check my e-gold balance ever hour?
14 - Do I scoff at this article?
15 - Do I attack anyone questioning a program I'm in?
If you answered yes to a bunch of these you have a problem and need to get your butt into GA...
YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!
YES YOU YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!
It can really f--ck up your life and the lives of those who depend on you.
The first step to dealing with it is to own that you have a HYIP addiction, the second is to get your ass to Gambler's Anonymous. They're in the phone book, and have a web site at
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org
They have some great info on how you can tell if you have a problem, so I will only elaborate on that a bit.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself:
1 - Do I HAVE to make that spend?
2 - Am I spending most of my free time on the Net researching programs?
3 - Do I try and pretend that its investing?
4 - Am I playing the maximum?
5 - Do my payouts spend right out again? In other words is my average e-gold balance a $1.35?
6 - Am I never pulling money out of my e-gold account?
7 - Am I always putting real money into my e-gold account?
8 - Am I so deluded that I actually think I can retire early doing this?
9 - Am I jeopardizing my real retirement in the process?
10 - Am I spending money I really can't afford?
11 - Am I hiding my activities from those I love?
12 - Is this causing financial and relationship problems for me? If you start referring friends and family you certainly are asking for relationship problems.
13 - Do I obsessively check my e-gold balance ever hour?
14 - Do I scoff at this article?
15 - Do I attack anyone questioning a program I'm in?
If you answered yes to a bunch of these you have a problem and need to get your butt into GA...
Emotional Detachment and Financial Desperation
Time and time again, I've seen people get emotionally attached to a program.
BIG MISTAKE...
The talk about trust and faith in the program, sometime to a cult-like level.
BIG MISTAKE...
They actually think the operators actually give a damn about them and have their interests at heart.
BIG MISTAKE...
The minute you lose your emotional detachment and forget what these programs really are, you are sheep for the shearing, and a shearing you will get.
For in their loyalty they'll keep pouring money into it, rolling all their profits, and even help pay the operator's legal bills.
It is easy enough to get attached, especially if the program has an active forum, because we as a species are hard-wired to be part of a tribe.
And in order to fit it, we are hard-wired to overlook the little flaws our tribe has.
But you got to fight it. You got to remain a lone wolf.
Then there is the whole cognitive dissonance thing, none of us deals well with thinking we've screwed up and will go to any lengths to avoid thinking that. And the more money we have in a program, the greater the lengths will be because your suppressed anxiety level is that much higher. I can't image what it would be like to have $10K riding in one of these. But anyone in that position must have really let their emotions get the better of them in a big way.
Maybe it was greed, but now with that spend it turns to fear, and any hint of program problems or complaints generate unbearable anxiety. Its fight or flight, and since their gold is in the program, they fight. Attacking the critic unmercifully.
And when the program goes down, they believe whatever BS the operator feeds, including promises of refunds. Because they can't admit to what really happened, they can't learn, and are doomed to repeat shearings.
So how do you stay detached?
1. Never forget that they are all ponzis.
2. Never forget that the operator will either cut and run, or the pyramid will collapse from its own weight.
4. Assume the operator doesn't give a shit about you.
5. Never commit more than a few hundred into one.
6. Remember the 10 signs that the fat lady is about to sing.
7. Pull some money off the table as quick as you can.
8. And there is always another program.
I've read the posts on many forums of deceased programs and programs in their death throws.
What scares me, seriously scares me, is the number of people who are using these programs as desperate last ditch effort to stay financially afloat.
THIS IS NOT THE WAY TO DO IT!!!
THIS IS THE ABSOLUTE WORSE THING TO DO!!!
Why?
1. These are crapshoots, using them as a way out is like depending on the slots for a way out.
2. Desperation breeds foredoomed risk-taking, such as putting everything into single program, or rolling over all the profits all the way into oblivion.
3. You’re far better off using the money you have to cut a deal with your creditors.
4. Even if by some miracle you did score big, it doesn't address the real financial management issues that got you in the red in the first place, so you'll just blow it one way or another and be right back where you started.
I read on one forum a post from some guy who put his last $150 into pnzi in a desperate attempt to stave off forclosure. I wonder if he thought of talking to the bank about restructuring his mortgage and giving them the $150. Or if that didn?t work, selling the house and doing a lease-back to buy.
As for deep debt in general, one can restructure. More importantly, one can learn good financial management skills.
If I may suggest, a far better option for the financially-distressed than spending into these programs, is to read and take to heart the book "How to Get Out of Debt, Stay Out of Dept & Live Prosperously" by Jerrold Mundis.
BIG MISTAKE...
The talk about trust and faith in the program, sometime to a cult-like level.
BIG MISTAKE...
They actually think the operators actually give a damn about them and have their interests at heart.
BIG MISTAKE...
The minute you lose your emotional detachment and forget what these programs really are, you are sheep for the shearing, and a shearing you will get.
For in their loyalty they'll keep pouring money into it, rolling all their profits, and even help pay the operator's legal bills.
It is easy enough to get attached, especially if the program has an active forum, because we as a species are hard-wired to be part of a tribe.
And in order to fit it, we are hard-wired to overlook the little flaws our tribe has.
But you got to fight it. You got to remain a lone wolf.
Then there is the whole cognitive dissonance thing, none of us deals well with thinking we've screwed up and will go to any lengths to avoid thinking that. And the more money we have in a program, the greater the lengths will be because your suppressed anxiety level is that much higher. I can't image what it would be like to have $10K riding in one of these. But anyone in that position must have really let their emotions get the better of them in a big way.
Maybe it was greed, but now with that spend it turns to fear, and any hint of program problems or complaints generate unbearable anxiety. Its fight or flight, and since their gold is in the program, they fight. Attacking the critic unmercifully.
And when the program goes down, they believe whatever BS the operator feeds, including promises of refunds. Because they can't admit to what really happened, they can't learn, and are doomed to repeat shearings.
So how do you stay detached?
1. Never forget that they are all ponzis.
2. Never forget that the operator will either cut and run, or the pyramid will collapse from its own weight.
4. Assume the operator doesn't give a shit about you.
5. Never commit more than a few hundred into one.
6. Remember the 10 signs that the fat lady is about to sing.
7. Pull some money off the table as quick as you can.
8. And there is always another program.
I've read the posts on many forums of deceased programs and programs in their death throws.
What scares me, seriously scares me, is the number of people who are using these programs as desperate last ditch effort to stay financially afloat.
THIS IS NOT THE WAY TO DO IT!!!
THIS IS THE ABSOLUTE WORSE THING TO DO!!!
Why?
1. These are crapshoots, using them as a way out is like depending on the slots for a way out.
2. Desperation breeds foredoomed risk-taking, such as putting everything into single program, or rolling over all the profits all the way into oblivion.
3. You’re far better off using the money you have to cut a deal with your creditors.
4. Even if by some miracle you did score big, it doesn't address the real financial management issues that got you in the red in the first place, so you'll just blow it one way or another and be right back where you started.
I read on one forum a post from some guy who put his last $150 into pnzi in a desperate attempt to stave off forclosure. I wonder if he thought of talking to the bank about restructuring his mortgage and giving them the $150. Or if that didn?t work, selling the house and doing a lease-back to buy.
As for deep debt in general, one can restructure. More importantly, one can learn good financial management skills.
If I may suggest, a far better option for the financially-distressed than spending into these programs, is to read and take to heart the book "How to Get Out of Debt, Stay Out of Dept & Live Prosperously" by Jerrold Mundis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)